Michigan’s Most Flippable
five state House seats flippable by less than 2.5%
Our 2026 plan focuses on five seats in Michigan’s House of Representatives where the winner of the last election squeaked across the line. The 44th District, for example, would have switched winners with just 30 flipped votes:
Nobody can predict election results with absolute precision, but absolute precision isn’t necessary. These elections end up with either a Democrat or a Republican, and it’s much easier to predict the winning party than their winning percentage. That’s because the same party wins the same seat nearly every time. Voter preferences change, but rarely enough to flip a seat.
The graph below shows political lean in each House district for the last decade. The districts are ordered left to right by their 2012 political lean; the biggest Democratic win is on the left, and the biggest Republican win is on the right. Win margins are shown vertically, from 100% Republican Party up to 100% Democratic. A 50:50 tie vote is shown as a line across the middle.
Only fifteen of Michigan’s 110 districts ever crossed the line in ten years of voting. And since they didn’t flip at the same time, Republicans controlled Michigan’s House of Representatives for the entire decade. The Republican gerrymander was effective.
But in 2022, all of Michigan’s districts changed, and the results have been dramatic. Party control of the state House swapped twice in two elections! Comparing 2022 win margins (in gray) against 2024 shows remarkably large swings in voter preference... on the Democrat’s side of the divide.
Here’s a map of the most flippable seats, with the previous decade on the left and current districts on the right. Diagonal line shading shows whether it leans left or right. We anticipate a shift left in the next election.
Last, here’s a short video showing Michigan’s political evolution since 2012: